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Ready Marketing / Growth Plan Fabric Outlet Created 2026-06-10 0/14 tasks

Fabric Outlet — Growth Plan: 600 new + 500 recurring by Dec 2026

Objective

Grow Fabric Outlet to 600 new customers/mo and 500 recurring customers/mo by December 2026, while protecting the 9.3x ROAS efficiency we've built and the recurring growth trajectory (41% over the last 5 months). Plan is grounded in a portfolio LTV discovery: 17.4% of FO customers also buy at Shiplap, making FO the most cost-effective front door to the portfolio.

Executive Summary

What we learned this month: Fabric Outlet's January 2026 spike (637 new customers, +46% vs Dec) wasn't a marketing win — it was a seasonal auction arbitrage. The same $6,742 Meta spend bought 71% more impressions in January because every other advertiser pulled budget after the holidays. April/May we cut spend nearly in half and ROAS doubled to 9.3x, but new customers fell back to ~500/mo.

The big finding: Fabric Outlet is the portfolio's most efficient front door. 17.4% of FO buyers also purchase at Shiplap, spending an average of $1,598 there. That makes the true portfolio LTV of an FO customer ~$393 — roughly 4x the FO-standalone LTV of $97.

What this means: We have far more CAC headroom than we've been using. Current FO CAC is $8. A healthy LTV:CAC of 3:1 supports CAC up to $59. We're operating at 22:1, dramatically under-leveraging the acquisition opportunity.

The plan: A phased push to 600 new + 500 recurring per month by Dec 2026, with retention work prioritized (Klaviyo + cross-store discovery flow) and acquisition scaling tied to a CAC ceiling, not arbitrary spend targets.

Three decisions requested today:

  • ☐ Approve +$3,000/mo Meta budget bump for Phase 1
  • ☐ Confirm internal ownership of Klaviyo flow rebuild
  • ☐ Approve $2,000–3,000 Phase 3 budget for loyalty/subscription pilots

What's Happening Today (Last 6 Months)

New & Recurring Customer Trend

Month New Recurring Meta Spend CPM ROAS Cost/New
Dec 2025 437 260 $6,732 $13.45 4.5x $15.40
Jan 2026 637 257 $6,742 $7.88 5.7x $10.58
Feb 2026 527 264 $5,942 $7.88 5.5x $11.27
Mar 2026 537 317 $7,461 $10.48 4.8x $13.89
Apr 2026 453 302 $3,537 $10.65 9.7x $7.81
May 2026 508 362 $4,200 $10.97 9.3x $8.27

Three phases visible:

  • Dec–Jan: Post-holiday auction crash. CPM dropped 41%. Same budget, 70% more reach.
  • Feb–Mar: Auction recovered. Spend held, efficiency slipped.
  • Apr–May: Spend cut nearly in half. Creative refresh + waste reduction → ROAS doubled. Best efficiency in two years, but new customer volume dropped 25%.

Recurring story: Climbing steadily — up 41% from Dec to May. The May figure of 362 is a six-month high. Retention engine is working.

The Discovery That Changes the Plan

Portfolio LTV Analysis (FO 2024-06 → 2025-05 cohort, 2,407 customers)

Fabric Outlet customers don't stay in Fabric Outlet. A meaningful share become Shiplap customers too — and they spend significantly when they do.

Metric Value
FO standalone 12-mo LTV $97
FO buyers who also bought at Shiplap 17.4% (418 customers)
Avg Shiplap lifetime spend per crossover customer $1,598
FO buyers who also bought at Sundance 1.1% (26 customers)
Cross-portfolio contribution per FO customer +$296
Total portfolio LTV per FO customer ~$393

What this means for CAC strategy

LTV:CAC ratio Sustainable CAC
3:1 (industry healthy for ecommerce) $59
4:1 (conservative) $44
5:1 (margin of safety) $35
Current FO CAC (May) $8

Even haircutting LTV by 50% to account for lifetime-vs-12-month overstatement, max sustainable CAC is still ~$29 — 3.6x what we're spending today.

The portfolio LTV finding reframes Fabric Outlet's role: it is the most cost-effective front door to the entire portfolio. Every dollar that acquires an FO customer is partially a dollar acquiring a future Shiplap customer.

Caveats (transparent)

  • $1,598 is lifetime spend (2-year window), not 12-month. True 12-mo cross-portfolio LTV is closer to ~$200, total portfolio LTV ~$297. Headline number is the long-term ceiling; conservative number still supports the strategy.
  • Directionality of crossover not yet verified. Some "crossover" customers may have started at Shiplap and discovered FO, not the other way around. We're pulling first-purchase store data to confirm.
  • Margin assumption (45% blended gross margin) is approximate. Real number lives in NetSuite — recommend Brock verify before final budget commit.

Strategy

Two goals, one constraint, three principles.

The constraint: Don't trade retention for acquisition. The fastest way to hit 600 new is to flood the funnel with deep discounts, but that trains customers to wait for promos and crushes the recurring base we just spent five months building.

Three principles:

  1. Build retention BEFORE we scale acquisition. Klaviyo flow rebuilds happen first. Otherwise we acquire customers we can't keep.
  2. Cap acquisition discount depth at 10%. Hold the line on FABRIC10. Don't escalate to 15% or 20% even if growth slows — protect recurring margin.
  3. Tie scaling to CAC headroom, not calendar targets. When CAC stays under $25, push. When it crosses, throttle. Trigger logic, not gut feel.

The Three-Phase Plan

Phase 1 — Quick Wins (Weeks 1–4)

Target end-of-phase: 560 new, 380 recurring, ROAS ≥ 6x

Tactics:

  • ☐ Bump FO Meta budget +$3,000/mo on top-3 ROAS-positive May campaigns. Tighter CPP discipline — kill any ad set with CPP >$15 within 7 days. Cost: +$3,000/mo. Owner: Cole. Lift: +90–120 new/mo.
  • ☐ Rebuild Klaviyo welcome flow — 5-touch sequence ending in 2nd-purchase incentive at Day 14. Welcome non-promo content for organic signups; WELCOME10 only for paid-channel captures. Cost: internal. Owner: Cole. Lift: +20–30 recurring/mo by Phase 2.
  • ☐ Launch FO → Shiplap cross-store discovery email at Day 60 post-FO purchase. Curated Shiplap collection drop. This is the highest-leverage tactic in the entire plan. Cost: internal. Owner: Cole + Caleb (creative). Lift: +3–5% lift in crossover rate = +$40 portfolio LTV per FO customer.

Trigger logic: Pause Meta bump if 14-day blended ROAS dips below 6x. Halt cross-store flow if Shiplap inventory pinches. Risk to watch: Klaviyo deliverability if list grows fast. Monitor open rate weekly.

Phase 2 — Structural (Months 2–3)

Target end-of-phase: 600 new, 430 recurring, ROAS ≥ 5x

Tactics:

  • ☐ CPM-trigger scaling automation — when 7-day rolling CPM drops below $9, auto-bump top-3 campaigns +20%. Revert when CPM crosses $12. Captures the next Q3 auction lull automatically. Cost: internal dev. Owner: Cole. Lift: +30–60 new/mo in cheap auction windows.
  • ☐ Google Shopping / PMax test — $1,500/mo budget on branded + top-collection terms. Diversifies away from Meta-only dependency. Cost: +$1,500/mo. Owner: Cole. Lift: +50–100 new/mo.
  • ☐ 60-day lapsed win-back flow — Klaviyo automation, free build. Cost: internal. Owner: Cole. Lift: +20–30 recurring/mo.
  • ☐ Creative refresh cadence — 2-week rotation, kill creative with CTR <5%. Sustains April/May 7.5% CTR baseline. Cost: designer time. Owner: Caleb / freelance. Lift: sustains efficiency gains.

Trigger logic:

  • Account-level frequency >3.5 → halt all scaling (audience saturated)
  • Blended ROAS <5x for 7 days → pause CPM-trigger scaling
  • Klaviyo 2nd-purchase rate (90d) <22% → flow audit

Phase 3 — Compounding (Months 4–6)

Target end-of-phase: 600 new sustained, 500 recurring, locked through year-end

Tactics:

  • ☐ Loyalty program pilot — points/rewards via Smile.io or Yotpo. Launch with existing recurring base. Cost: $50–200/mo platform + setup. Owner: Cole + vendor. Lift: +50 recurring/mo at maturity.
  • ☐ Precut subscription pilot — auto-replenishment for charm packs / precut bundles. Small pilot first — fabric is not a classic subscription category, validate fit before full launch. Cost: dev time. Owner: Cole. Lift: 50–100 subscribers = $2–4K MRR + ~30 recurring/mo if successful.
  • ☐ Referral program — existing recurring base recruits new at lower CAC. Cost: $0 ongoing, setup time. Owner: Cole. Lift: +20–40 new/mo at <$5 CAC.
  • ☐ Organic SEO push — collection page schema, "shop the look" pages, fabric-finder tool. Cost: dev + content time. Owner: Caleb (content) + Cole. Lift: +20 new/mo by month 6, compounding.

Pre-launch gate: Phase 3 launches only if fulfillment can handle 1,100 orders/mo (current is 825). Brock — please confirm before commitment.

Trigger Automation (Built Phase 2)

DAILY CHECK:
  IF meta_cpm_7d < $9 AND blended_roas_7d > 6x AND frequency < 3.5
    → auto-bump top-3 campaign budgets +20% (cap at +50% over baseline)

  IF meta_cpm_7d > $12 OR blended_roas_7d < 5x
    → revert to baseline budgets

  IF frequency > 3.5
    → halt all scaling, alert Cole

  IF klaviyo_2nd_purchase_rate_90d < 22%
    → flag for flow audit

WEEKLY CHECK:
  Cross-store rate (FO → Shiplap, last 60-day cohort)
  IF rate < 15% → cross-store email flow needs creative refresh

Automation lives in Mission Control. No human babysitting between weekly reviews.

Risks & Watchlist

  1. Discount training. If FABRIC10 attach rate on new orders climbs above 60%, we're discount-dependent. Currently ~45%. Test no-code paid acquisition paths.
  2. Creative fatigue. Apr/May CTR of 7.5%+ depends on fresh creative. Without 2-week refresh, CTR slips back to 5% within 8 weeks.
  3. Cross-store rate decay. 17.4% is historic baseline. Accelerated FO acquisition may dilute that rate. Monitor 60-day cohort cross-store rate monthly.
  4. Q4 auction inflation. CPM historically hits $14+ in November. CPM-trigger logic will throttle automatically, but October budget planning needs to account for this.
  5. Fulfillment capacity. 600 new + 500 recurring = ~1,100 orders/mo (vs May's 825, +33%). Brock to confirm capacity before Phase 3.
  6. Margin assumption (45%). Plan economics depend on this number. Recommend Brock verify against NetSuite before committing to Phase 1 budget.

Measurement

Weekly leadership dashboard:

  • New customers (vs trajectory to 600)
  • Recurring customers (vs trajectory to 500)
  • Blended ROAS, CAC, AOV
  • Klaviyo 2nd-purchase rate (90-day window)
  • Cross-store rate (60-day cohort)

Monthly review:

  • Plan vs actual, by phase
  • Lever attribution (which tactic drove which lift)
  • Go/no-go on next phase tactic

Three Decisions Requested

1. Phase 1 Meta Budget: +$3,000/mo

Current: $4,200/mo May Meta spend. Proposed: $7,200/mo. Why this is safe: Portfolio LTV of $393/customer supports CAC up to $59. We're at $8. Even with diminishing returns at scale, projected CAC at $7,200/mo spend is $12–15 — well under ceiling. Approval needed from: Cole + Brock (budget)

2. Klaviyo Flow Ownership: Internal (Cole / Mission Control)

Scope: Welcome flow rebuild, Day-14 post-purchase, FO→Shiplap cross-store discovery, 60-day win-back. Estimated effort: ~15 hours over 4 weeks Cost: $0 cash Approval needed from: Cole confirms commitment

3. Phase 3 Pilot Budgets: $2,000–3,000 total

Loyalty platform (Smile.io or similar): $50–200/mo Precut subscription dev: ~$1,500 one-time (validation pilot only — gated on early signal) Referral platform: Free tier Total ask: Up to $3,000 across the quarter, only spent if Phase 1/2 hit targets Approval needed from: Leadership consensus

Open Questions for the Team

  1. Caleb: Cross-store creative — can your team produce the Day-60 FO → Shiplap discovery email? What's the lead time?
  2. Brock: Can fulfillment handle the projected 1,100 orders/mo at peak? What's the trigger for adding capacity?
  3. Brock: Can you verify the 45% gross margin assumption from NetSuite? Plan economics depend on this.
  4. All: Sundance crossover from FO is only 1.1% vs Shiplap's 17.4%. Audience genuinely different, or untested bridge worth a pilot?
  5. Cole: Has Mary been running FO → Shiplap cross-promo emails already? If yes, what's the current cadence (avoid double-sending)?

Bottom Line

The original "Fabric Outlet has had a strong January" question turned into a portfolio strategy insight. FO isn't just a store — it's the most cost-effective acquisition channel for the entire portfolio, and we've been treating it like a standalone P&L.

With portfolio LTV at $393 and current CAC at $8, we are dramatically under-investing in this channel relative to its true value. The proposed +$3,000/mo Meta bump puts us at projected CAC ~$12–15 — still 25x under the LTV ceiling.

The retention-first sequencing protects the recurring base we've built and creates the cross-store flywheel that makes the portfolio LTV math durable.

Recommend approval of all three decisions today, with weekly review against the dashboard above.

Source: ~/ai-projects/mission-control/plans/fo-600-new-500-recurring.md