Ready Created 2026-08-01 0/25 tasks

September 2026 Post-Labor Day Recovery Plan

Scope: Fabric Outlet · Shiplap Quilt Shop · Sundance Quilting
Problem: Labor Day peaks Sep 7. September 8–30 is a known revenue cliff with no current playbook to bridge it.
Output format: Email cadence, Google Ads step-down, and fall collection intro sequence per store.

The Problem

Labor Day weekend drives a spending surge (sales, urgency emails, elevated ad budgets). When it ends, all three levers turn off simultaneously:

No active sale = no urgency
Post-sale audience satisfaction = lower intent
Ad budgets snap back = less reach
No planned fall hook to fill the gap

The cliff is 23 days (Sep 8–30). It corresponds directly to the window between the end of summer promotions and when October/Halloween content typically launches. Left unaddressed, it shows up as a 20–40% revenue dip vs. the Labor Day week.

Recovery logic: Don't try to sustain Labor Day-level revenue. Instead, engineer a soft landing through fall community content (Sep 8–14), a deliberate fall collection launch (Sep 15–21), and a holiday planning bridge (Sep 22–30) that seeds October's higher-volume period.

Calendar Overview

Date Range	Phase	Theme
Sep 7	Labor Day peak	Sale, urgency, final push
Sep 8–14	Soft landing	Back-to-studio inspiration, no pitch
Sep 15–21	Fall launch	Hard launch of fall collection
Sep 22–30	Holiday bridge	"Start your holiday quilts now"

FABRIC OUTLET

Store Profile

B2C fabric retail, heavy Lori Holt catalog, precuts and yardage
Klaviyo flows: Welcome Series, Abandoned Cart (6h delay — needs fix to 1h), Review Request
Browse Abandonment flow in progress (templates built, UI setup pending)
Meta Ads: supervised mode, ASC+ + collection campaigns, ad set-level budgets
Voice: fun, colorful, direct

Email Cadence (5 emails, Sep 9–25)

Email 1 — Sep 9 (Tue) | Soft Landing

Campaign name: FO_Fall_Soft_Launch_Sep9
Segment: Active subscribers (engaged 90 days)
Subject lines (test 2):

What are you making next?
The studio is calling

Preview text: Fall fabrics, new arrivals, and one thing we can't stop thinking about

Angle: No discount. Pure inspiration. Acknowledge the end of summer and transition to fall sewing. Feature 2–3 new fall-adjacent arrivals without hard sell. Position Fabric Outlet as the place to start a fall project.

Body outline:

"Labor Day weekend is done — now the real sewing begins."
Fall fabric spotlight: 2 products with images (warm tones, harvest colors, or new arrivals — swap in live SKUs before sending)
No CTA button pressure. Soft: "Take a look" → collection link
Optional: "What are you working on this fall?" engagement hook

CTA: Shop New Arrivals → /collections/new-arrivals
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 2 — Sep 16 (Tue) | Fall Collection Launch

Campaign name: FO_Fall_Collection_Launch_Sep16
Segment: Full list (all active subscribers)
Subject lines:

Fall collection is here
New fabrics just dropped — and they're very fall

Preview text: Warm tones, rich textures, and everything your autumn projects need

Angle: Hard launch. This is the primary fall revenue email. Feature the anchor fall collection (ideally a named collection — seasonal release, Lori Holt fall palette, or harvest/autumn prints). Include 3–4 hero products with prices and images. No discount required — novelty is the hook.

Body outline:

Hero headline: "Fall 2026 Has Arrived"
Lead with 1 hero collection (precut bundle or stacker at $34.99–$44.99 range)
Supporting products: 2 yardage options
Social proof block: "Our top quilters start stocking up in September — here's what they're grabbing"
CTA: prominent button

CTA: Shop Fall Fabrics → /collections/fall-2026 (create if needed)
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 3 — Sep 22 (Mon) | Fall Equinox Hook

Campaign name: FO_Fall_Equinox_Sep22
Segment: Non-purchasers from Email 2 (didn't buy Sep 16–21)
Subject lines:

It's officially fall — time to start something
First day of fall. New project energy.

Preview text: Your next quilt deserves a proper autumn palette

Angle: The equinox (Sep 22) is a natural cultural hook. No invention required — it's just fall. Angle: "Start your holiday quilts now before the October rush." This bridges fall and Q4 without jumping straight to Christmas content.

Body outline:

"Fall officially starts today. The best quilters we know start their holiday projects in September."
2-product feature: fall fabric + a "holiday gift" angle on it (e.g., "This stacker makes 3 table runner gifts")
Urgency: not fake — popular fall SKUs genuinely sell out; phrase as "Don't wait on these"

CTA: Start Your Holiday Quilt → /collections/fall-2026
Send time: 9am MDT, Monday

Email 4 — Sep 25 (Thu) | Bestseller Proof + Soft Scarcity

Campaign name: FO_Fall_Bestsellers_Sep25
Segment: Active subscribers who haven't purchased in September
Subject lines:

These are flying off shelves
Our most popular fall fabrics right now

Preview text: Grab them before they're gone — no restock guarantee

Angle: Social proof + soft scarcity. Feature the 3 top-selling fall SKUs with "X left in stock" or "selling fast" language if inventory supports it. This is the close email for anyone who browsed but didn't buy.

Body outline:

"Since we launched our fall collection last week, these three have been the most popular."
Product grid: 3 items with image, name, price, in-stock status
"We can't guarantee restocks on limited colorways"
Optional: 5% off code for list subscribers only (FALL5) — only add if conversion rate from Emails 1–3 is tracking low

CTA: Shop Before They're Gone → /collections/fall-2026
Send time: 10am MDT, Thursday

Email 5 — Sep 30 (Wed) | October Bridge

Campaign name: FO_October_Preview_Sep30
Segment: Full active list
Subject lines:

Halloween quilts? Let's talk.
What October needs in your sewing room

Preview text: Spooky season starts with the right fabric

Angle: Pure October/Halloween content tease. This one seeds next month's campaign and keeps the list warm through the gap. No hard sell — early look at Halloween/fall-spooky collection, invite them to watch for it.

Body outline:

"October is 2 days away. We've been working on something."
2-image teaser of Halloween/fall-spooky fabrics (no price, no CTA to purchase — just "coming soon")
"Be the first to see it" → email signup for early access (or just "stay tuned")
If no Halloween-specific collection: pivot to "October sewing challenge" community content

CTA: See What's Coming → /collections/new-arrivals or landing page
Send time: 9am MDT, Wednesday

Google Ads Step-Down (Fabric Outlet)

Assumption: Labor Day sale ran Sep 4–7 at 150% of normal daily budget. Normal daily FO budget across all active campaigns ≈ whatever the current baseline is.

Date	Budget Level	Action
Sep 7 (Mon)	150% (Labor Day peak)	Sale running, elevated
Sep 8 (Tue)	115%	Step down; keep elevated to catch post-LD buyers
Sep 9 (Wed)	100%	Return to baseline
Sep 10–14	100%	Hold at baseline; swap all sale ad copy back to evergreen
Sep 15 (Tue)	125%	Elevate for fall collection launch (aligns with Email 2)
Sep 16–21	120%	Maintain fall launch elevation
Sep 22 (Mon)	115%	Equinox hook; aligns with Email 3
Sep 23–30	110%	Stable fall baseline; taper as October content is staged

Campaign-specific rules:

ASC+ campaigns: Do not touch budget during active learning phase. If an ASC+ campaign is post-learning and performing, apply the step-down. If in learning, hold budget constant through Sep 14, then reassess.
Lori Holt Bundle campaigns: Only elevate if inventory is healthy. Check stock before Sep 15 budget increase. Zero inventory = pause, not elevate.
Sale-specific ad copy: Deactivate or swap by Sep 9. Labor Day urgency language running after the sale destroys trust.
Fall campaign setup (NEW): By Sep 12, create or activate a fall-specific ad group targeting fall fabric keywords. Suggested keywords: "fall quilt fabric", "harvest quilt fabric", "autumn fabric by the yard", "fall precut fabric bundles". Align landing page to /collections/fall-2026.

Fall Collection Intro Sequence (Fabric Outlet)

Week 1 (Sep 8–14): Tease

Organic social: 2 posts showing fall colorways in-studio, no price. "Fall is coming to Fabric Outlet."
Pin the fall collection landing page before Email 2 sends.
Make sure /collections/fall-2026 is live and populated before Sep 12.

Week 2 (Sep 15–21): Launch

Email 2 (Sep 16) is the primary launch vehicle.
Ads align: Fall landing page, fall creative, new ad copy live by Sep 15.
Feature the hero product across all channels simultaneously.

Week 3 (Sep 22–30): Sustain + Bridge

Email 3 (equinox hook) and Email 4 (bestsellers) keep the collection top of mind.
Begin staging October content by Sep 25 so October 1 launch is ready.

Product recommendations by angle:

Angle	Product type	Price range
Hero anchor	Lori Holt fall stacker or FQ bundle	$34.99–$54.99
Accessible entry	Yardage, warm tones	$9.99–$12.99/yd
Gift-ready	Coordinated bundle or kit	$44.99–$69.99
Halloween/spooky	Novelty prints	$10.99/yd

Swap in live SKUs from Shopify before using these in email or ads.

SHIPLAP QUILT SHOP

Store Profile

Boutique quilting shop, curated kits and bundles, higher AOV ($79+)
Klaviyo flows: Welcome Series, Customer Winback, Back In Stock
Missing: Abandoned Cart (P1 gap) and Post-Purchase Cross-Sell
Meta Ads: 15–18 active campaigns, product-specific and collection-specific
Voice: community-driven, handpicked, warm and personal

Email Cadence (5 emails, Sep 9–30)

Email 1 — Sep 9 (Tue) | Community Soft Landing

Campaign name: SHP_Fall_Community_Sep9
Segment: Engaged subscribers (90 days)
Subject lines:

Your next project is waiting
What's on your sewing table this fall?

Preview text: We've been pulling together something special for the season

Angle: Shiplap's brand is community. This email should feel personal, not promotional. No products in the lead. Open with a message from the Shiplap team, acknowledge end of summer, ask what members are working on. Soft product mention at the bottom only.

Body outline:

Warm opener: "Labor Day weekend means summer sewing is officially over. Now the cozy season begins."
1 community spotlight or UGC image (customer project if available)
Soft product tease: "We've been curating our fall arrivals — here's a first look"
1 product image, no price pressure
"Reply and tell us what you're making this fall" — engagement hook

CTA: See What's New → /collections/new-arrivals
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 2 — Sep 15 (Mon) | Fall Kit Reveal

Campaign name: SHP_Fall_Kit_Reveal_Sep15
Segment: Full list
Subject lines:

This is our fall kit — and we're obsessed
We've been working on this all summer

Preview text: One kit. Everything you need. Ready for fall.

Angle: Shiplap's highest-value product type is the kit. Fall is the natural kit season — people want a contained, complete project for cozy evenings. Lead with one hero fall kit at $79.99–$99.99. Make it feel curated and exclusive to Shiplap.

Body outline:

"We don't just stock fabrics — we curate them. This fall kit is the result of 3 months of planning."
Hero kit: full-page image, name, price, what's included (fabric, pattern, cutting guide)
"Our customers typically make this in 4–6 evenings — perfect for September and October"
Social proof: "Our National Quilting Month kit sold out in 72 hours — this one is limited too"
Urgency: honest — kits are genuinely limited by their nature

CTA: Get the Fall Kit → product page for hero kit
Send time: 9am MDT, Monday

Email 3 — Sep 22 (Mon) | First Day of Fall + Gift Angle

Campaign name: SHP_Fall_Equinox_Sep22
Segment: Non-purchasers from Emails 1–2
Subject lines:

Fall starts today — and so does holiday planning
First day of fall. 3 months until Christmas.

Preview text: The quilters who gift handmade start now. Here's where to begin.

Angle: Shiplap's community skews toward gift quilts. The equinox is the natural trigger to surface this. "Holiday gifting quilts take 6–8 weeks — start in September, finish by Thanksgiving." This is aspirational and helpful, not pushy.

Body outline:

Calendar math: "If you want to gift a quilt at Christmas, September is when you start."
Feature 2 kits framed as "perfect gift quilts" — one large ($89.99+), one accessible ($49.99)
Practical: "Each kit includes the pattern so you're not starting from scratch"
CTA message: "Start your gift quilts now"

CTA: Shop Gift-Ready Kits → /collections/kits or curated gift page
Send time: 9am MDT, Monday

Email 4 — Sep 25 (Thu) | Bestseller + Stock Warning

Campaign name: SHP_Fall_Bestsellers_Sep25
Segment: Subscribers who haven't purchased in September
Subject lines:

3 things selling fast this week
These won't last — fall's most popular picks

Preview text: Our community has good taste — and good timing

Angle: Same pattern as FO — social proof + honest scarcity. Shiplap's kits are genuinely limited quantity. Use real stock numbers if available from Shopify.

Body outline:

"We launched our fall collection last week. Here's what our community is reaching for most."
Top 3 products with images, prices, units remaining
"We don't reorder kits mid-season — when they're gone, they're gone"

CTA: Shop Before It's Gone → product pages or /collections/new-arrivals
Send time: 10am MDT, Thursday

Email 5 — Sep 29 (Tue) | October Preview

Campaign name: SHP_October_Preview_Sep29
Segment: Full active list
Subject lines:

Something spooky is coming to Shiplap
October is 2 days away — here's what we're planning

Preview text: Halloween sewing, new kits, and a community challenge you won't want to miss

Angle: Warm community preview. Set expectations for October. If Shiplap runs any October challenges or events, tease here. If not, frame as "our October collection drops next week."

CTA: Stay tuned or See October previews → new arrivals or blog
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Google Ads Step-Down (Shiplap)

Shiplap runs significantly more campaigns (~15–18 active) and uses a mix of campaign-level and ad set-level budgets.

Date	Budget Level	Action
Sep 7	150% (Labor Day peak)	Sale running
Sep 8 (Tue)	120%	Step down; post-LD buyer window
Sep 9–10	100%	Return to baseline
Sep 11–14	100%	Hold; audit zombie campaigns before Sep 15 launch
Sep 15 (Mon)	130%	Fall kit launch elevation (aligns with Email 2)
Sep 16–21	125%	Maintain launch elevation
Sep 22–25	115%	Equinox + bestseller phase
Sep 26–30	105%	Taper into October

Campaign-specific rules:

Zombie audit (required by Sep 12): With 15–18 active campaigns, some will be Labor Day remnants with paused ad sets still showing ACTIVE. Pull campaign list, check ad set statuses, kill zombies before reallocating budget.
Boosted posts from Labor Day: These auto-expire or continue running if set to ongoing. Check all campaigns named [date] Promoting... — pause any that ran Labor Day sale creative.
SJC TOF campaigns: Keep running at normal budget through September. Top-of-funnel fall audiences are warm and responsive; this is not the time to cut TOF spend.
ASC+ Bear Kit: Same rule as FO — don't adjust during learning phase. Post-learning: apply the step-down like any other campaign.
Fall-specific new campaign: By Sep 12, create or activate a fall-specific kit targeting campaign. Suggested angle: "fall quilt kit", "quilt kit for beginners", "complete quilt kit autumn". Landing page: hero fall kit product page.

Fall Collection Intro Sequence (Shiplap)

Week 1 (Sep 8–14): Community Priming

Organic: post 2 photos of fall fabrics in-studio, ask "what's your fall project?" — drives comments
Story polls: "Fall quilt or Halloween quilt?" — engagement that also informs product priorities
Stage the hero fall kit landing page (not live yet — go live Sep 14 at night so Email 2 is ready)

Week 2 (Sep 15–21): Kit Launch

Email 2 (Sep 15) is the launch vehicle
Organic social: kit flat lay, unboxing reel if possible
Ads: Kit-specific campaign goes live Sep 15 with kit creative

Week 3 (Sep 22–30): Gift Angle + October Seed

Email 3 (equinox) pivots to gift quilts
Organic: "Show us your summer quilt finish" — community engagement while fall content builds
Stage October content by Sep 26

Kit pricing architecture for fall:

Kit type	Price point	AOV target
Sampler / intro kit	$49.99	First-time buyers
Full quilt kit	$89.99	Core customers
Designer collaboration kit	$119.99+	High-LTV buyers

Confirm which SKUs exist in Shopify before committing these to email copy.

SUNDANCE QUILTING

Store Profile

Finishing service, not retail. Sells long-arm quilting / edge-to-edge finishing.
No inventory — capacity is the constraint
Very lean account: 2 active Meta campaigns
Utah geo-targeted (LOCAL UT campaigns)
Higher AOV than retail (service pricing)
Fall is peak booking season: holiday quilts need finishing by Nov/Dec
Email and ads should drive booking calls or form submissions, not purchases

Why September is Critical for Sundance

Sundance's revenue cliff is not just a post-LD problem — it's an existential scheduling problem. Customers who want quilts finished for holiday gifting need to submit in September and October to guarantee a November/December return. If customers don't book in September, the spots fill with other orders and Sundance either turns people away or rushes in December.

This is the single most important email push Sundance runs all year.

Email Cadence (4 emails, Sep 9–26)

Email 1 — Sep 9 (Tue) | Holiday Booking Season Opens

Campaign name: SDQ_Holiday_Booking_Sep9
Segment: Full list (past customers + subscribers)
Subject lines:

Holiday booking season is open — grab your spot
Spots are going fast for November and December finishing

Preview text: Submit by October 15 for guaranteed holiday delivery

Angle: This is the most important email. Open with the math: "Holiday quilts need 6–8 weeks. Submit by early October, get your quilt back before Thanksgiving." No discount needed. Urgency is genuine.

Body outline:

"Holiday sewing season is here — and so is the rush to get quilts finished in time."
The math: "October 15 submission = November delivery. November 1 submission = December — but only if spots remain."
"We're already taking bookings for October through December. Don't wait."
Simple booking process: drop off / ship in / contact to schedule
FAQ: pricing, turnaround time, what they provide (quilt top + batting + backing)

CTA: Book Your Holiday Spot → booking form or contact page
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 2 — Sep 16 (Tue) | October Slots Filling Up

Campaign name: SDQ_October_Filling_Sep16
Segment: Subscribers who haven't booked (didn't open/click Email 1)
Subject lines:

October slots are filling up
How many quilts are waiting in your closet?

Preview text: The customers who book now get guaranteed November delivery

Angle: Real scarcity (if October is genuinely filling) + the "quilts in the closet" hook is highly resonant with quilters. Many have finished tops sitting unfinished for months.

Body outline:

"Every fall, our customers pull out the quilt tops they've been finishing all summer. This is the week to book them."
"Quilts submitted by October 1 are guaranteed back by Thanksgiving."
Social proof: "Our returning customers book in September — every year."
Soft portfolio: 2–3 photos of finished customer quilts (with permission)

CTA: Schedule Your Finishing → booking form
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 3 — Sep 23 (Tue) | Last Call for October Spots

Campaign name: SDQ_October_LastCall_Sep23
Segment: Full list who haven't booked
Subject lines:

October finishing spots: almost gone
Last chance for Thanksgiving delivery

Preview text: Once October fills, next available is December — plan accordingly

Angle: Hard close on October availability. If spots are genuinely limited, use real numbers ("3 October slots remain"). If not, use honest language about turnaround.

Body outline:

"We're down to our last October finishing slots."
Thanksgiving delivery math: submit by Oct 10 → finished by Nov 20
December delivery: submit by Nov 1, but spots already moving fast
"If you're on the fence, this is the push: book now, you can always adjust later"

CTA: Reserve Your Spot → booking form
Send time: 9am MDT, Tuesday

Email 4 — Sep 26 (Fri) | Gift Finishing Angle

Campaign name: SDQ_Holiday_Gift_Sep26
Segment: Non-bookers, past customers
Subject lines:

Give a professionally finished quilt this Christmas
Your quilt top + our finishing = the perfect gift

Preview text: Handmade means more when it looks professional

Angle: Gift reframe. Many customers have unfinished quilt tops they intended to finish themselves. Reframe professional finishing as gift-worthiness, not shortcut.

Body outline:

"A hand-quilted top with professional finishing looks better and lasts longer."
"This year, give a gift that someone will keep for decades."
Turnaround: submit by November 1 for Christmas delivery
Process: simple, low-friction (ship or drop off in Utah)

CTA: Get It Professionally Finished → booking form or service page
Send time: 9am MDT, Friday

Google Ads Step-Down (Sundance)

Sundance is simple: 2 active campaigns, campaign-level budgets only.

Date	Budget Level	Action
Sep 7	150% (Labor Day peak)	Any LD promotion running
Sep 8–9	100%	Return to baseline immediately — Sundance doesn't run LD sales, no elevation needed
Sep 10–14	100%	Hold; update ad copy to fall/holiday booking angle
Sep 15 (Mon)	150%	Elevate for holiday booking season launch (aligns with Email 1 follow-through)
Sep 16–23	140%	Sustained elevation; booking season is the highest-value period
Sep 24–30	130%	Hold elevated through end of month; October is peak

Why Sundance gets elevated (not tapered) after Labor Day: September is Sundance's peak revenue opportunity for the entire year. Unlike the retail stores, Sundance should be increasing ad spend in September, not recovering from a cliff. Every dollar of booking-season ad spend has a high return because the service is high-ticket and capacity is finite.

Campaign-specific notes:

LOCAL UT campaign: This is the highest-priority campaign. Geo-targeted Utah customers are the easiest conversions (can drop off vs. ship). Increase LOCAL UT budget to 150%+ of normal from Sep 15 onward.
Ad copy refresh required by Sep 12: Swap current creative to fall/holiday booking angle. Suggested headline: "Holiday Quilt Finishing — Book Now for November Delivery." This is the highest-leverage single action for Sundance's September.
Keyword targeting: Add/activate fall-specific keywords: "quilt finishing near me", "long arm quilting Utah", "holiday quilt finishing", "edge to edge quilting Utah". These have high purchase intent in September.

Fall Collection Intro Sequence (Sundance)

Sundance doesn't have a "fall collection" — but it has a fall offer framing:

The Fall Finishing Package: Position September–October submission as a complete service for holiday gifting. Name it if it doesn't have a name: "Holiday Finishing Package" or "Thanksgiving Ready Service."

Content sequence:

Week 1 (Sep 8–14): "Holiday booking season is open" — social posts, story countdown to October booking deadline Week 2 (Sep 15–21): Before/after photography — unfinished tops vs. completed finished quilts (if available) Week 3 (Sep 22–30): Customer testimonials / portfolio content — "Here's what we finished last Christmas season"

Organic social cadence (Sep 8–30):

3 portfolio posts (finished holiday quilts, ideally from Dec 2025 — "here's what we made for our customers last year")
2 process posts (what finishing looks like, dispelling intimidation about submitting)
1 booking deadline countdown post (Sep 20: "10 days until October booking window closes")

Implementation Checklist

By Sep 5 (before Labor Day)

☐ Confirm fall collection SKUs are live in Shopify for FO and Shiplap
☐ Create /collections/fall-2026 for FO (or confirm it exists)
☐ Build Klaviyo email templates for each store (5 FO, 5 SHP, 4 SDQ)
☐ Draft Sundance booking form / contact page is current and easy to find
☐ Review Labor Day ad creatives — plan swap-out timing for Sep 9

By Sep 9

☐ Send Email 1 for all three stores
☐ Deactivate all Labor Day sale ad copy
☐ Step down FO and Shiplap ad budgets to baseline
☐ Return Sundance to 100% (if elevated for LD)

By Sep 12

☐ Audit Shiplap zombie campaigns — kill anything with paused ad sets showing ACTIVE status
☐ Build/activate fall-specific ad groups for FO and Shiplap
☐ Update Sundance ad copy to holiday booking angle
☐ Add fall-specific keywords across all three accounts

By Sep 14

☐ Shiplap fall kit hero page live and tested
☐ FO fall collection page fully populated with images and prices
☐ All three Email 2s scheduled and previewed

By Sep 15

☐ Elevate ad budgets for fall launch: FO 125%, SHP 130%, SDQ 150%
☐ Send Email 2 (FO and SHP fall launches)

Week of Sep 22

☐ Send Email 3 (equinox hook for FO and SHP; last call for SDQ)
☐ Evaluate fall launch performance: open rates, CTR, revenue
☐ Adjust Oct 1 budget targets based on Sep 15–21 ad performance

Sep 25

☐ Send Email 4 (bestseller close for FO and SHP; gift angle for SDQ)
☐ Begin staging October content — do not launch September's plan cold in October

Sep 29–30

☐ Send Email 5 (October bridge for FO and SHP)
☐ Set Oct 1 ad budgets — expected elevation for Halloween/fall season

Success Metrics

Store	Target	Definition of Recovery
Fabric Outlet	Sep revenue ≥ 70% of Labor Day week	Not a return to peak — a controlled bridge to October
Shiplap	Sep email-driven revenue ≥ Memorial Day campaign baseline	Use MD results as floor
Sundance	≥ 60% of October + November booking slots filled by Sep 30	Measured against capacity, not revenue

Email metrics to track:

Open rate target: 30%+ (FO, SHP); 35%+ (Sundance — more urgent content)
CTR target: 3%+ (retail); 5%+ (Sundance — click = booking intent)
Revenue per email send (FO and SHP): track in Klaviyo

Risks and Mitigations

Risk	Likelihood	Mitigation
Fall collection not ready in Shopify by Sep 9	Medium	Send Email 1 without hard product — pure inspiration; delay launch to Email 2
Abandoned Cart flow delay (FO, timing fix still pending)	High	Fix the 1h trigger before Sep 9 — Labor Day weekend abandonments are the highest-value recovery window of the month
Sundance booking form not current/findable	Medium	Audit booking CTA landing page before sending Email 1 Sep 9
Shiplap zombie campaigns inflate budget perception	Medium	Complete zombie audit by Sep 12 before any budget increases
Meta tokens still expired (noted in memory: all store tokens dead as of 2026-07-31)	High	Cole must refresh Meta Business Manager tokens before ANY ad changes can be made or verified via API

Open Items for Cole

Meta tokens: All store Meta tokens were dead as of 2026-07-31. Confirm they've been refreshed before any ad budget changes go into effect. (See memory: project_meta_token_expired_july2026.md)
Fall collection SKUs: What fall products are live or planned for FO and Shiplap by Sep 9? The plan assumes fall content exists — if it doesn't, the sequence needs adjusting.
Sundance booking page: Is the booking form / contact process current? The holiday booking pitch only works if the CTA destination works.
Abandoned Cart timing fix (FO): The existing flow fires at 6h instead of 1h. High priority to fix before Labor Day weekend, which is one of the highest abandon-rate weekends of the year.
Discount code authority: This plan does NOT include discounts by default (equinox season doesn't need them). If conversion rates from Emails 1–2 are weak, a 5–10% code on Email 4 is the fallback. Confirm threshold before automating.

Source: ~/ai-projects/mission-control/plans/september-post-ld-recovery-plan.md